The recession will, in my opinion, continue on for the foreseeable future. I'm talking years, not months as the "green chutes" seeing folks would have you believe. The work that springs up is short lived as money is being tightly held in most sectors. Wall Street numbers appear to be mainly investing firms movement and not the needed move of individual investors getting back in the game. The problem is the pipeline. Employers see sparse work and nothing coming down the line behind it. This lack of confidence prevents the rehiring of laid off workers even if the occasional overtime shifts are needed to handle an uptick in business. There is also a resistance for entrepreneurs to expand businesses that were started within the past few years. Where is their reasonable certainty for return on investment? The health care debate also puts the brakes on growth as small and midsized companies hear nightmare scenarios of what it could cost them to do business.

61% of workers that are underemployed are not hopeful of finding a job in the next four weeks according to a recent Gallup survey.

Feb 25 2010, 2:30 pm by Daniel Indiviglio

Underemployed Americans Are Very Discouraged

A Gallup poll released this week shows that underemployed Americans in the U.S. are extremely discouraged about finding full-time employment. That underemployed population makes up about 20% of the workforce, according to another recent Gallup poll. They're defined as those who are "either unemployed or work part time but want to work full time."

This portion of the workforce, as well as those who have given up looking for now, does not show up in the unemployment statistics. This country is in much tougher shape than the sound bite media would have us believe.

Amusingly, the poll also tracked how respondents felt about President Obama's performance. As you might expect, those who are more hopeful were more likely to embrace the President. He did, after all, run a campaign based on hope and change.

I find it interesting that of those polled, even 53% of the "not hopeful" approve of the way President Obama is handling his job.

Read more: http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/underemployed_americans_are_very_discouraged.php

Another interesting article is:

by Don Peck

How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America

The article can be view at: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/jobless-america-future

The real unemployment rate may be closer to 17% than 10% when all factors are considered. The article states,

The unemployment rate hit 10 percent in October, and there are good reasons to believe that by 2011, 2012, even 2014, it will have declined only a little. Late last year, the average duration of unemployment surpassed six months, the first time that has happened since 1948, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking that number. As of this writing, for every open job in the U.S., six people are actively looking for work.

The effects could me more devastating this time around as now both parents are working to make ends meet. One party losing their income can cause the whole house to collapse. Couple that with the affection for credit over the past two decades and we just may find out how many of those collapsing houses were made of cards. We are part of the instant gratification age and the slick marketers knew how to play us. In the end, we are responsible for our own decisions. The question is, how many of our decisions were responsibly made?

As the government continues to prop up some parts of the economy while ignoring others, the economy as a whole cannot correct itself and heal the wounds. The bleeding may stop for a time, but when a new crisis requires the pressure be put on it, the wound will explode once again. Case in point is the housing bubble. The problem was created by government policy and now they are trying to spend their way out of it. As the tough times continue, more cities will run into the problems of foreclosure and under water properties. The commercial property bubble is nearing its bursting point as well. And when the money supply is doubled, what happens to the value of it? Inflation is around the corner waiting to rear its ugly head. The Fed will try to control it with interest rates and contracting the money supply, but will it really be able to control the effects when the federal government keeps raising the number of trillions it wants to spend?

Since last spring, when fears of economic apocalypse began to ebb, we’ve been treated to an alphabet soup of predictions about the recovery. Various economists have suggested that it might look like a V (a strong and rapid rebound), a U (slower), a W (reflecting the possibility of a double-dip recession), or, most alarming, an L (no recovery in demand or jobs for years: a lost decade). This summer, with all the good letters already taken, the former labor secretary Robert Reich wrote on his blog that the recovery might actually be shaped like an X (the imagery is elusive, but Reich’s argument was that there can be no recovery until we find an entirely new model of economic growth).

Have you noticed how most of the numbers for reports the government releases are reported on the news as "unexpected"? This administration thinks it can control the economy and make it do what  they want it to do. They can't predict what the economy will do because central planning doesn't work now just as it has never worked in the past. History is something that this Administration either chooses to ignore or is woefully ignorant of.

Historically, financial crises have spawned long periods of economic malaise, and this crisis, so far, has been true to form. Despite the bailouts, many banks’ balance sheets remain weak; more than 140 banks failed in 2009. As a result, banks have kept lending standards tight, frustrating the efforts of small businesses—which have accounted for almost half of all job losses—to invest or rehire. Exports seem unlikely to provide much of a boost; although China, India, Brazil, and some other emerging markets are growing quickly again, Europe and Japan—both major markets for U.S. exports—remain weak. And in any case, exports make up only about 13 percent of total U.S. production; even if they were to grow quickly, the impact would be muted.

I have no confidence that Washington will pay attention by what I have seen the past 10 years. This country is now feeding off itself, but there is little to no gravy left in this train. Entitlements and unfunded liabilities continue to grow and the government continues to try to spend its way out of the problem. Each one of these items comes from the same source, tax dollars. As the burden grows for tax payers and businesses, less money is available for expansion and job creation. Fewer jobs mean fewer tax payers to foot the bill. It is a vicious cycle. There was a snapshot in this morning's USA Today that showed the public sector employment has become bigger than private sector employment. Where is their pay going to keep coming from as the taxpayers are further squeezed. And if it is true that there are over one hundred new agencies to be formed if this healthcare bill passes, well, do the math.